Mackerel supply uncertain, price hikes could continue
further price hikes this year.
Ann-Mari Haram, a researcher at Eurofish, said there are more question marks then ever about which way supplies and prices are going ahead of the main mackerel season in autumn 2006.
The prices on mackerel sky rocketed from 2004 to 2005 in the EU, reported Eurofish, an arm of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The average price on EU mackerel exports increased by 19 per cent, Canadian exports by 36 per cent and Norwegian exports by more than 40 per cent during the year.
"The high prices create unease among the suppliers as they worry that the high prices will lead to negative reactions from the buyers," said Ann-Mari Haram, a researcher at Eurofish. "The Japanese market is crucial for all suppliers and according to some exporters there are signals that the current price level makes mackerel a less interesting product for Japanese retailers."
From a quota perspective there should thus only be minor changes in the supply from the main European catching nations in 2006 compared to last year. However, some industry observers expect that the exports of mackerel caught by the UK fleet will be considerably lower than in 2005 despite stable quota levels
"First, there is uncertainty related to UK fleet," she wrote in an analysis for Eurofish, a research arm of the Food and Agriculture organisation. "If the catches should be lower than the quota level indicates this should lead to even higher prices this year."
Many analysts also believe that the price level in the previous season was not sustainable and fear that further pressure on the prices eventually will damage the position of mackerel on the Japanese market. In any case, it is expected that the Japanese buyers will be on the lookout for alternative sources for mackerel, she said.
Total fishing quotas for mackerel in the EU were gradually reduced from 2003 to 2005. In 2006 the total quota is slightly higher than in 2005.
According to Eurostat the exports from the EU's 15 original members have decreased considerably over the last three years, from 313,000 tonnes in 2003 to 188,000 tonnes in 2005.
The exporters drastically reduced their exports of mackerel to Nigeria and Russia in the course of this period. The exports to Poland, which acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004, increased considerably during the period.
However, the exports to another recent member of the EU, Lithuania, went down with more than 60 per cent from 2004 to 2005. The exports from EU15 to Japan increased in 2005 while it decreased somewhat to China. This can be an indication that the Japanese industry is processing more of the mackerel itself, Haram said.
Total Norwegian exports have decreased over the period in line with the quota reductions and reduced imports. Imports went down almost 50 per cent from 2004 to 2005.
Despite the overall reductions in volumes, the Norwegians maintain their focus, relatively speaking, on Japan and China. Also Russia and Ukraine remain important markets. The exports from Norway the three first months of this year have basically followed the same pattern as the first quarter of 2005, she said.
Meanwhile the Canadians have increased their exports considerably over the last three years. However, the volumes stay relatively small compared to the European suppliers.
China is the biggest market for Canadian mackerel followed by Japan. The Japanese market has become increasingly important to the Canadian exporters. This again is a sign that the Japanese industry is searching for alternative supplies of mackerel, she said.
