Sceptics dismiss the ‘GLP-1 friendly’ tag as mere marketing hype capitalising on the popularity of weight-loss drugs. Others, however, argue it represents a seismic shift in food consumption patterns that will redefine the industry. As appetite-suppressing medications reshape consumer eating habits, the stakes are high for producers to determine whether this trend has legs or if it will fade.
GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) is a hormone produced by the small intestine that helps regulate appetite and blood sugar levels. GLP-1 medications mimic this hormone, leading to reduced hunger, slower digestion, and, consequently, lower calorie consumption. While originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, these drugs have gained widespread use for weight loss, often achieving reductions of 15-21% in body weight when paired with proper nutrition and exercise.
However, these benefits come with challenges. Reduced calorie intake often results in nutritional deficiencies, particularly in protein and fibre, which are essential for maintaining muscle mass and digestive health. This has spurred the emergence of ‘GLP-1 friendly’ foods designed to address these dietary gaps.
The numbers behind the trend
While the ‘GLP-1 friendly’ concept might initially seem like a marketing ploy, its underpinnings suggest a trend with staying power. At its core, the term reflects broader shifts in consumer behaviour toward healthier, more mindful eating. This is not exclusive to GLP-1 users: the principles of high-protein, high-fibre, and portion-controlled eating resonate with a growing cohort of health-conscious consumers.
Additionally, the numbers point to a growing, not diminishing, market. The global obesity drug market is projected to reach $126bn by 2029, with an annual growth rate of 30%, according to UBS and Morgan Stanley.
The momentum behind GLP-1 is undeniable. According to Barclays Research, prescriptions for these medications grew by 300% in the US alone from 2020 to 2023, with one in eight adults reportedly having tried them. Morgan Stanley projects that approximately 24 million Americans (7% of the population) will be taking such medications in 2035, cutting their daily calorie consumption by as much as 30%, statistics concurred by Nicholas Fereday, executive director of Food & Consumer Trends for Rabobank.
“People on these drugs not only eat less (20% to 30% fewer calories) and consequently lose body weight (about 15% to 20%), but they are choosing to eat different foods, often times healthier ones,” he said, adding, “The impact of these drugs on the food industry is real. The challenge for the food industry is to figure out how to respond to that and unlock some of the opportunities these drugs create.
“Because they are eating less food, there is a greater interest in the nutrient density of food. This includes more fruits and vegetables, as well as protein foods to maintain muscle mass.”
Social media reflects the trend’s deep integration into consumer consciousness, with discussion about GLP-1 soaring by over 1,000% in the past year, according to GenAI-powered consumer insights platform Tastewise.
The GLP-1 market is currently concentrated in the US and parts of the EU, but rapid expansion into markets like China – projected to see an annual growth rate of 23% from 2023 to 2033, according to investment firm PeakBridge – suggest that global adoption is inevitable.
“Analysts are already predicting that GLP-1 drugs will significantly impact the $9 trillion food industry in terms of both food quantity (consumers desiring less) and quality (consumers desiring a higher quality of food). As more people incorporate these medications into their daily routines, a noticeable shift in food consumption patterns has already been observed,” states the investment firm’s report ‘From medicine to revolution: How GLP-1 is transforming food & consumption’.
Spending on packaged foods has dropped by approximately 40% among GLP-1 users, according to Barclays Research, and overall basket sizes have shrunk by 10%. “We definitely do see a slight change compared to the total population; we do see a slight pullback in overall basket,” reported John Furner, Walmart US CEO.
So, how to innovate?
The bakery industry (long associated with indulgence and high-calorie products) and the snacks sectors (heavily reliant on impulse purchases) are particularly vulnerable to the shift in consumer preferences.
However, opportunities abound for those willing to innovate:
High-protein breads and baked goods address te muscle-preservation needs of GLP-1 users. High protein bars, too, align with the dietary priorities while maintaining convenience.
Fibre is crucial for GLP-1 users, improving satiety while helping alleviate gastrointestinal side effects such as constipation. Incorporating ingredients like psyllium husk, inulin, and whole grains will enhance product appeal.
Ingredient suppliers are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the GLP-1 trend. Natural GLP-1 inducers – like berberine, curcumin, resveratrol and ginseng – can support users at different stages: preparing for medication, mitigating side effects, or transitioning off the drugs. The development of these products presents significant opportunities for ingredient companies to lead the next wave of health innovation. For producers, these ingredients provide an additional layer of value while offering differentiation in a crowded market.
Smaller, portion-controlled packaging can cater to GLP-1 users’ reduced appetites while reinforcing mindful consumption habits. Miniature pastries and single-serve breads can cater to reduced appetites while maintaining indulgence.
Early movers in ‘GLP-1 friendly’ innovation
Major players are already pivoting to embrace GLP-1 friendly innovation. Conagra Brands, for instance, is rolling out an ‘On Track’ badge on select Healthy Choice meals this month, signalling high-protein, fibre-rich, and low-calorie content. Healthy Choice is the first major food brand to explicitly label products as GLP-1 friendly.
Nestlé has taken an even bolder step with its Vital Pursuit line of frozen meals explicitly targeted at GLP-1 users. The Swiss company is also experimenting with Boost Pre-Meal Hunger Support, a protein-rich drink designed to stimulate natural GLP-1 production.
Meanwhile, PepsiCo and Mondelez International are focusing on lower-sugar formulations and smaller portion sizes, reflecting a broader industry shift toward healthier snacking. While not explicitly labelled as ‘GLP-1 friendly’, these moves align with the underlying principles of the trend.
So, does ‘GLP-1 friendly’ have legs?
Despite the promise of the ‘GLP-1 friendly’ label, its lack of regulatory definition poses challenges. Overuse or inconsistent application of the term could erode consumer trust. Additionally, high-quality ingredients like protein isolates and functional fibres are costly, potentially impacting profit margins. Companies must also invest in consumer education to communicate the value of these products effectively.
However, the demand for nutrient-dense, functional, and portion-controlled foods is unlikely to wane. “The ultimate impact of the GLP-1 trend is still unfolding,” states PeakBridge’s GLP-1 report, “but it is a powerful driver for shifting consumer behaviour towards healthier options.”
So, whether it remains as a niche label or become a transformative movement, the ‘GLP-1 friendly’ tag appears to hold serious influence.
For bakery and snack producers, the stakes are clear. Ignoring this trend risks obsolescence, while embracing it offers a pathway to innovation and growth. By leveraging functional ingredients, rethinking product design, and aligning with changing consumer preferences, companies can position themselves as leaders in this emerging space.