In its Q2 Menu Trends report, Datassential traced how a trend grows from the inception stage — where a food or beverage is only available at small grocers and fine-dining establishments — to the ubiquity stage, where it can be purchased at major retailers and dollar stores.
Also, Conaghan shared which foods and labels are slowing in growth, including a variety of cheeses.
“Trends follow a predictable pattern. Sometimes, it feels like they come out of nowhere, but they usually do not,” said Conaghan.
Can ‘girl dinners’ boost cheese sales?
In the past year, artisan cheeses grew by 9%, smoked mozzarella by 6% and cheese plates by 1%. However, over a four-year period, artisan cheese declined by 36%, smoked mozzarella by 27% and cheese plates by 30%.
There might be an opportunity for cheese plates to rebrand as “girl dinners,” a popular but also divisively named viral food trend where women share their small plate snacks or meals, Conaghan noted.
“One thing you will notice in the cheeses ... is there’s glimmers of hope for all of those. They are having some increases in the 12-month growth,” Conaghan said. “Then, you can even think about things that they are connected to or replacement pieces. So, cheese plate; the term is declining. We are also having all sorts of usage of basically cheese plates, and social media wants you to call them ‘girl dinners.’ So, there is always ways to redo things.”
From chili crispy to Carolina barbecues: The spicy trends that are hot and not
Elsewhere on menus, hot and spicy flavors are still seeing strong demand as established bold and emerging global flavors are finding their way on menus and store shelves, Conaghan said.
Among the established spicy flavor and sauce trends, tajin saw the most growth with a 45% increase in the last year and 344% for the last four years, followed by Nashville hot with a 35% increase for the last year and 311% for the last four years. Hot honey was up by 30% in the last year and 109% in the last four years.
Chili crisp is one of the fastest-growing items in Datassential’s sauces and flavors category, increasing by 2,999% in menu penetration over the last four years and by 122% in the last year. Additionally, the Yemeni sauce zhug started to pop up on menus, seeing 15% growth in the last year and 130% in the last four years.
On the spicy and sweet side of the menu, Carolina barbecues and its varieties have struggled to grow on menus and in product, but the mustardy Carolina Gold BBQ sauce and flavor has broken out and seen growth, Conaghan said. Carolina Gold BBQ has a 0.7% menu penetration, growing 40% over the last year and 133% over the last four years.
“North Carolina [barbecue] has had a bumpy road, and it had a dip in 2020, and it’s continued to dip, ... whereas you have watched the trend line for Carolina Gold barbecue sauce, and it tells you a very different story. So, it is super-duper tiny, and it has been on an upswing since 2020, not a lot of things had an upswing from 2020 to 21. So, the fact that we are seeing that really indicates that it’s something to keep an eye on. I know there’s a lot of retail products starting to be offered in this area.”
