“The decline of the [bread] category reflects the ongoing and growing consumer sentiment against processed foods in favor of more natural ones, as well as American’s increasing aversion to carbohydrates and gluten," said the market researcher.
Packaged leavened bread suffered both volume and value declines of 1% to reach sales of 2.7m tons and $11.3bn in 2016, compared to the year prior.
Private-label perceived more natural
Packaged pastries posted the strongest growth in 2016 compared to other baked goods segments (including bread, cakes, dessert mixes and frozen baked goods), registering a 4% volume increase and 6% growth in current value terms, said Euromonitor.
“The strong growth was driven primarily by the 12% current value growth of private label, which comprises the largest share of packaged pastries at 49%," said Euromonitor.
“Many consumers view private label as more natural and less processed than the packaged products from large companies like Kellogg and Bimbo Bakeries, both of which experienced losses of 1% and 3% in 2016, respectively.”
Euromonitor forecasted the retail value of the pastries category to reach $14.22bn by the end of 2017, growing at 1.4% year-on-year.
Growth of frozen baked goods to outpace pastries
However, it also predicted the frozen baked goods segment would grow faster than pastries in the US from 2018 onwards.
By the end of 2016, the US frozen baked goods posted a total retail value of $2.3bn, increasing by 0.5% from the year prior, while pastries shot up by 3.9% during the same period.
In 2017, Euromonitor anticipates the growth rate of frozen baked goods to catch up to pastries.
The forecasted figures showed the pastries category would maintain at a growth rate of 1.4% between 2018 and 2019, while frozen baked goods would grow by 1.6%.
By the end of 2021, frozen baked goods are expected grow at 1.8%, while pastries’ growth rate would drop to 1.2% annually.
Euromonitor did not comment why US pastries’ growth would slow down.
The sales value of frozen baked goods is expected to reach $2.5bn in the US by 2021.