Canada's 2002 beef and veal export target lowered

Canada's beef and veal product exports for 2002 have been lowered from an earlier forecast, with a decline in US shipments tied to the drop, according to updated data from the Canadian Beef Export Federation (CBEF). However, the 2002 export level will remain above last year's total.

Total Canadian beef and veal product exports in 2002 were forecast by the CBEF at 497,239 metric tonnes, which compares with a January forecast of 502,894. In 2001, Canadian exports totalled 490,433 tonnes.

Canadian beef and veal exports to key Asian and Mexico markets were pegged at 129,500 tonnes in 2002, unchanged from the January forecast, but higher than the 114,376 in 2001. Of the Asian nations, Japan was seen taking 26,600 tonnes of Canadian beef and veal, down from 29,224 in 2001, but shipments to South Korea were expected to climb to 18,800 tonnes from just 9,334 the year previous.

Mexico's imports of Canadian beef and veal were projected at 69,900 tonnes, little changed from the 2001 level of 69,010.

The Canadian beef and veal export estimate to the US in 2002, meanwhile, was revised downwards by the CBEF to 349,030 tonnes from 355,140 in January. The projected amount going to the US in 2002 is also lower than the 2001 level of 357,348 tonnes.

While Canada has traditionally shipped over 90% of its beef to the US, exports to that market accounted for only 73% of total exports in 2001. By 2010, Canada's dependence on the US markets is expected to be less than 50%, reducing the negative effects of any possible future trade restrictions.

Shipments to other markets in 2002 were pegged at 18,709 tonnes, up slightly from the January forecast of 18,254, but unchanged from the 2001 level.

In a longer-range outlook, the CBEF felt Canadian beef and veal exports could hit the 533,464 tonne goal by 2005 and 562,714 tonnes by 2010. The latest projections compare with the January long-range outlook for 2005 of 539,119 and 568,369 for 2010.

Increased demand from Japan and South Korea through to 2010 was expected to more than offset declining US shipments.